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Baccarat Probabilities

What makes Baccarat so appealing? Many individuals have designated this their favorite game for 3 reasons:

  • The house has a very low edge.
  • There is not a lot of strategy to consider when playing.
  • And it is essentially a very simple game to learn and play.

Common questions asked by those who are learning the game include: Why is Baccarat surrounded by an aura of prestige and elegance? What's with all the velvet? And, who exactly plays Baccarat? Well, those are good questions and puzzling to many experts. One of the most alluring aspects of Baccarat is the glitz and glamour that often accompanies it. Typically, the Baccarat tables in Vegas and AC casinos are roped-off affairs, with velvet partitions and beautiful women adorning the crowd and attending to the high-rolling participants. Solemn and serious, tuxedo-clad dealers add to the striking image of overt wealth and prestige. Because of all this, one might expect Baccarat to be complicated and accessible only to the wealthy, but this is not the case. Baccarat is one of the easiest games to master due to the small number of strategic decisions and possible maneuvers.

This section will help you understand what your chances of winning in Baccarat really are, and also how to make the correct decisions enabling you to increase your own likelihood of winning.

The following are a few common questions people ask when thinking about Baccarat probabilities:

Where's the Best Bet?

The house edge for a banker bet outcome is only 1.17%, while the edge for a player bet outcome is slightly more at 1.35%. Thus, you can see the attractiveness of the game. It should be remembered that most casinos will charge a 5% commission on winning banker bets. This simply illustrates for you which outcome is more probable, and therefore the best bet.

Should I Wager on a Tie?

Universally not recommended by any gaming experts, the Tie bet outcome is seldom a winner. The payout odds are significantly higher (8:1, opposed to 2:1) which makes it irresistible for those who are looking for that quick buck, or who operate more on whims and hunches than mathematical deduction and logic. If you do choose to bet on the Tie, don't expect to win very often. If you choose to bet on the Tie and win, congratulations!

Number of decks?

An important thing to consider when choosing which game to play, the number of decks being used is often unwisely overlooked. Below, you will find the advantage of playing games with fewer numbers of decks being used. The number of decks used is displayed on the far left column, followed by the bet outcome in the middle, and finally the probability of these outcomes on the far right:

Bet Outcome Probability
1 DECK Bank 45.96%
Player 44.68%
Tie 9.36%
4 DECKS Bank 45.88%
Player 44.63%
Tie 9.49%
6 DECKS Bank 45.87%
Player 44.63%
Tie 9.51%
8 DECKS Bank 45.86%
Player 44.62%
Tie 9.52%

As you can see, the lowest house edge occurs when betting on the Bank with only 1 deck being used. The margin is small but, as you know, Baccarat is often a high-stakes game, so every decimal point of an advantage you can gain will inevitably lead to more positive results and more money in your pocket!

Look at our Baccarat Strategy page for other useful ways to increase your chances of winning.

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